About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Syria -- Ugly And Getting More Threatening

The boys of sunny Syria are rolling into full scale civil war. It's Sunni vs. Shia et al, a portable
conflict with centuries of hatreds behind it. NATO is pressing the House of Assad to give way.
The Saudis would like to see the Shia Crescent broken. The Iranians are keen to keep it. The
Russians are moving bird gunships and Marines into the country. Israel is freaking out on news
that Bashar and the boys are moving their chemical and biological warfare stocks around. El Q
would like to procure CBR weaponry and it is likely that the Sunni opposition has a few guys
who are not Jeffersonian democrats and might be tempted to put any pieces of CBR stuff out
on the open market. The US surely has to be concerned as do the Russian who have some hostile
Islamic militant neighbors. Turkey -- handling both provocation and refugees -- is finding its
patience strained. And of course, Lebanon shares the explosive interfaith mix evident in Syria.

Spillover and / or intervention by outsiders could put either of  or both Saudi Arabia or Iran
into the headlines, and let us keep in mind the Sunni / Shia fault line that runs through Iraq, which
is on a strong oil output ramp up.

There are three cushion billiard shot possibilities here that could wind up putting the supply
of oil in the region into play along with the price. Stay up to date on the Syria story.

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