About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Saturday, July 07, 2012

Stock Market -- Technical

Daily Chart
Once again, the rally in place since 6/1 was clipped hard when the SPX moved up around a 3%
premium to the 25 day m/a. Technically, the rally is still in place, but you need to take note that
the two day pullback from the 1374 close on Tue. to the close of 1355 on Fri. constituted a
failure to break above the Apr. / May '12 downtrend line. As mentioned back in the 7/3 post, a
pullback was in order, but the failure to penetrate the down line was a disappointment nonethe-
less.  $SPX daily To remain interestingly positive, the SPX needs to take out 1375 on the way
up over the next week or two.

Weekly Chart
This chart has treated me well over the past several years. I am still carrying an early May, 2012
sell signal, and even though the market has rallied, the important 12 week MACD measure has
yet to turn up and price momentum against the 40 wk m/a has not clearly reversed to the upside.
$SPX weekly I remain cautious based on the weekly chart, and if the current rally keeps perking
along, I am going to be late to the party.

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