About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Stock Market -- Short Term

As outlined in several previous posts, I have not been impressed with the rally off the 6/1/12
low. My concerns have centered on lacklustre price momentum and volume. Price weakness
this week has brought a spate of negative and fundamental commentary to the web. My attitude
is that even though this rally has been unpersuasive so far, the sharp saw tooth pattern makes
it likely that a precisely correct call by anyone will be more a matter of luck than skill. $SPX

I would not want to call an end to the recent rally until after I have seen more technical damage
to the indicators shown on the chart.

From a fundamental point of view, there is an upcoming two day Fed FOMC policy meeting just
a week away. It is possible that there could be some intense handicapping re: further Fed
easing in the market over the next five trading days. It may well be that such handicapping has
already been contributing to the sharp chop in prices over the past six odd weeks.

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