About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Gold -- Teed Up Again For QE (Say No To Godot)

The bugz have for only the 10th time over the past year rallied gold off the 1560 pivot line
(or less) in anticipation of further substantial QE by the major central banks, especially the Fed.
This week we have the Fed and the ECB with policy meetings and we also have Il Signore Draghi
trying to muster support to bend the iron will of the Bundesbank. Gold closed Fri. 7/27 just under
$1620 oz. and a fresh meme from the bugz is that the metal should be bought at $1620 to capture
a prospective big price run up as the Fed and /or the ECB finally launch big time QE programs.
Gold Price Chart A sudden sharp rise in price above $1620 is envisioned as a top side breakout
that would confirm another "breakdown" of monetary discipline.

Failure of the major CBs to come through this week with QE big time could knock the price
down for another test around $1550 -  1560. No doubt the bid has been there at those levels as
the bugz remain confident the CBs will ultimately relent and give them another large payday.

Since I think $1500 oz. is a bubble price for gold based on my fundamental and technical
work, I will continue to look for profitable shorting opportunities here and leave you to your
own devices. 

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