About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, May 21, 2017

SPX -- Weekly

My e-inbox is stuffed this week with indications of growing pundit / strategist impatience. This
is the first such suggestion in 2017, although it should not be a surprise given the continuing
flat market and a volatile week. I am not receiving  much bearish commentary, but rather
intimations that its high time for more upside or, maybe it will be wise to think about reducing
exposure.

My forward looking cyclical economic indicators have continued on the flat side since the end
of January, and, like the market, have not evidenced much in the way of volatility. The Congress
has taken up tax reform with emphasis on revenue take neutrality, and it is possible traders are
starting to miss Trump team leadership on a more stimulative set of guidelines with a clear focus
on significant deficit financing.

The weekly SPX chart shows the market is still working off a serious intermediate term over-
bought situation including now double top resistance at 2400. The market's range over the past
few months has been tight and there has not been the sort of sustained corrective action to
provoke thinking that a fresh buying opportunity might be at hand.  Similarly, there has not been
a test of the 40 wk. m/a since last autumn. I do not have a strong view on market direction near
term, but my discipline says not to trade extended overbought situations on the long side. The
chart does suggest there is upside through 2400 but maybe not very much.  SPX Weekly

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