About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, May 12, 2017

SPX -- Weekly

Fundamentals
Measured y/y, business sales and profits remain quite strong. Forward looking economic indicators
still suggest growth deceleration out ahead, but even this case is not closed yet. The future inflation
pressure gauge has weakened after a strong period of recovery starting in early 2016. Inflation may
also be set to moderate out ahead. Thus, the faster economic growth / inflation thesis which was
the bedrock for the strong up leg in the stock market since early 2016 hasn't yet collapsed, but has
dissipated considerably since earlier in the year. The market rally over the past couple of weeks
primarily reflects Trump talk of 'massive' tax cuts later in the year and hopes that he will keep
the infrastructure and offshore and dollar repatriation programs alive. If you are in it to win it
with The Donald, simply be prepared to continue to wade through the Trumpian horse shit that
will flow steadily our way.

Technical
Basically, the market remains overbought for the intermediate term with mild corrective action
quickly remediated in recent weeks. The market has now formed a 'secondary top'. This may
merely be incidental, but it could also be the prelude to something nastier as happened in mid-
2015. The SPX is also trading at the top of its 20 week Keltner channel, a development that
commands extra attention.  SPX Weekly

Trump And The Russians
There is plenty of smoke here, but how big the fire is is far from clear. In making FBI Director
Comey walk the plank this week, he has alienated the FBI to its core. Regardless of how the
investigation proceeds, figure that at some point in his tenure, the boys with the short hair cuts
and dark suits will take a large bite out of Trump's ass. Even a Trump built dyke will spring
serious leaks if it comes to that. 


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