About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Gold Price

In early 2016, economic fortune turned positive for the gold price in the form of faster economic
growth and accelerating inflation. It prompted a dramatic cyclical run for gold off its low in the
$1050 oz. area up to an unsustainable peak of $1375 in Aug. of last year when speculative froth
in the futures market bubbled up to dramatic new highs.  As expected then, the gold price corrected
to a deeper than expected low near $1125 late last year. That translated into a 7% price gain for the
2016, which seems appropriate to me, after all the dust settled. My shorter run economic and
inflation indicators have both lost substantial positive momentum so far this year, so the typically
volatile rally in gold in 2017 has been too strong on the inflation front in my view. Now there are
a bevy of potential geopolitical risk factors still ahead for 2017 ranging from North Korea on to
elections in Iran through to the Brexit saga, more elections in Europe and unsettled global
diplomacy reflecting The Donald in his role as wrecking ball of the old world order. On top,
with the US expected to be less dominant in the growth of the world economy this year, the
US dollar has been weakening so far in 2017 (which is fine by me).  So, gold has been getting
some support from both geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker USD, which has lost some haven
status.

With a correction underway in the USD, the gold price has some traditional appeal even though the
recent rally in anticipation of trouble after the French election has not materialized.  Gold Daily 


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