About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, September 30, 2016

Stock Market

Fundamentals
The cyclical bull market that started in early 2009 remains in place. But, it is an uncomfortable time.
My forward looking weekly cyclical indicator has been nicely on the rise since Feb. '16, in line with
the current up leg of the market, but the customary positive follow through for the economy and
for profits suggested by the indicator has fallen far short, leaving the market to advance primarily
on a nominally rising dividend, yield premium to cash equivalent and Treasuries, and a very low
inflation rate. Players call this "TINA", short for "there is no alternative". The idea is that with the
Fed holding interest rates so low, there is not enough competition for stocks. So far since the
latest leg up started in Feb., the premium p/e ratio, hyper extended position of the current price
level, and stagnant earnings have increased anxiety but have not knocked the SPX off of its uptrend.

With Fed members talking about raising short rates before long, the rally has lost positive
momentum and players are also wondering about the outcome of the upcoming election as well.
Since my forward looking economic indicators are not working very well at this point, I am not
about to step out of character and start making market predictions. When some useful clues come
around, I'll reassess. The stock market does not owe us a thing at this point, but I hope the economy
owes us some stronger performance.

Technical
The SPX continues to work off the overbought levels hit this summer and the indicators show mild
deterioration.  SPX Weekly

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