Despite intimations from Fedspeak that an increase in short term interest rates is in the pipeline,
recent economic data through mid - Sep. turned weak and left the Fed having to again postpone
further tightening of policy. This being a national election year, the incumbent party wants to
show economic data at its best right before the vote, so a snap back in Sep. data to be released
next month cannot be ruled out. If that is not feasible and weakness continues through the
month, the GOP could win the presidency and trigger off a wide range of interesting discussions
about the economy after election day.
Be that as it may, the classic case for tightening monetary policy further is not in place, and we
have to wait and see whether incoming economic data released next month improves. If such is
the case, then after election day the Fed will have a freer hand with policy.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!