In terms of advance / decline. the market has enjoyed a very strong positive move since the winter.
However, breadth has moved into an overbought position currently when measured in terms of RSI
and against its 40 wk. m/a. $NYAD Weekly - Cumulative
Notice that in recent years, when breadth RSI gets into overbought territory, as it is currently, both
breadth and prices tend eventually to get choppy and show some vulnerability (RSI is the third
panel on the chart). Note as well the commanding premium the a/d line now has over its 40 wk. m/a.,
and the commanding slope of the a/d line itself. The trajectory of the a/d line has carried long enough
to be bullish for the intermediate term. It signals a strong impulse, but is now quite extended. The
MACD measure, which has nicely underscored the market's advance since Feb. is also now tending
A rising TRIN measure signals the volume of declining stocks exceeds that of advances. By this
indicator, the market is coming off an intermediate term overbought, but the trend of the TRIN
indicator has not as yer reversed to show development of a weakening market. $TRIN
As always, remember that an overbought market reserves the right to get even more so.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!