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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Thoughts On 2016 National Election #2

The Democrats have made significant progress on trying to integrate the left-of-center wing
(Obama, Clinton) with a young, revived progressive wing (Sanders). They plan to join forces to
combat The Donald and the GOP, and have reached extensive compromises on party platform
and policy. It is still early to tell whether Bernie's people will gravitate into the party or remain
aloof, seeking to form a new base for the election in 2020. Hillary, for her part has been pulled
way left from where she stood a year ago. If she is elected president and begins backsliding,
the party's unity may unravel as Bernie and Elizabeth Warren may get right in her face if she
does not co-opt them. It will be critical for Hillary to court those younger folks who are
debt burdened underemployed college grads and are moving into the family formation years.
It will not be good enough if the Democrats stick only with older liberal whites and Afro -
Americans and Hispanics. In turn, young, progressive  folks need to behave themselves if
they protest the Trump campaign as now seems likely.

The GOP has made no progress toward unifying the establishment and its elites with Trump's
hard right, strongly nationalist followers. Trump blew a hole in the GOP establishment, showing
them to be interested primarily, if not exclusively in serving the needs of the rich and very
upscale. The GOP elite has so far shown itself too purist and hidebound to accept these folks
and Trump, ever the egomaniac and demagogue, has yet to introduce positive ideas to his
dis-affected white followers, preferring to play on their fears and prejudices. He may never do
so even if he wins the presidency, leaving it to others within the party who must "discover" all
the many loyal mid and downscale Republicans and how they have been betrayed by the
guardians of the wealthy.

The old Chinese curse is heavily upon us: We live in interesting times.

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