About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Gold, Silver -- Overbought On Record Speculative Interest

The cyclical economic and inflation case for these metals is ever so mildly positive. However, Brexit
has helped trigger upsets and concerns ranging from the British Pound and the Brit property market
to the solidity of the EU and the stability of the euro banks. On top, the Yuan has been weakening
again. Safe haven demand for gold has been on the rise and the silver market is being carried up
with it in classic 'poor man's gold' fashion. I do not have indicators for PM flights like these that I
trust because nothing captures the volatility of the PM markets. The technicals now command my
desk instead. I note also that in the futures market, long side interest from large speculators has
shot up to record levels for gold and silver. If you are enamored, check out the wide range of
bug's sites.

the weekly chart shows an uptrend from late 2015 sold-out low with price now in top of rising
channel. Market supported by positive reversal in 40 wk, m/a, but is clearly overbought on an
intermediate term basis. Premium in price to the 40 wk. m/a is an elevated 14.7% but is nowhere
near an exalted level.  Gold Weekly

The silver chart is much like the one for gold, except it is more grand in that the RSI overbought
is higher for silver and its premium to the 40 wk m/a is a zippy 30%.  Silver Weekly


Saanvi Nair said...

Commodity market seems to be highly unstable this week as many global economic condition is going to affect it. Initially starting from Brexit policies also US president is about to reveal their economic agenda. Get detail update from epic research to deal with this volatile market.

Anonymous said...

Fed rate hike worry pushes gold to its worst weekly performance since December MCX tips