About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, July 22, 2016

SPX -- Weekly

My weekly cyclical fundamental indicator turned up in Feb.'16 and continues to improve. The
inflation pressure gauges also turned up during the winter and are trending higher, although the
recent firming of the US dollar has trimmed the momentum of the gauges. The business strength
indicator is now firming, but remains below levels that signal the building of broad cyclical
momentum and pricing pressures in the economy. In, sum, the environment for business sales
and profits is getting better but is still subdued. The idea that the stock market can rise further
even though growth is restrained because inflation and interest rates are so low is gaining an
ever wider audience currently but is far from 'gospel'.

Back in my college days, and after an evening out, we would hit the old Blue Comet Diner in Bryn
Mawr, PA. We would order medium rare cheeseburgers and home fries, and if we were feeling that
a bit of extravagance was deserved, we'd go for having gravy ladled out over the burgers and fries.
To the point, if the 2009 - 2014 phase of the bull market was the burger and fries part, the
current market is the gravy. That's about as serious as I can be, at least for today.

The chart is nicely positive and has extended the rally from Feb. to new highs. The SPX is headed
for an intermediate term overbought but is not there yet in a robust fashion. Interestingly, the SPX
could fall sharply to the 2040 area before the current uptrend was violated.  SPX Weekly

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