About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

US Dollar -- At Interesting Point

With the Fed now out of the business of QE, and with sentiment again swinging toward a more
nearly imminent "lift off" in short rates, the dollar is on the rise again to salute a prospective,
more full blooded tightening of policy by the Fed. $USD

What is interesting here is that not only is the dollar overbought in the short run, it has also formed
what could be a secondary top. It made a strong, momentum driven top in the spring, then corrected
moderately, and is now back up to near the 100 level on the index. Sometimes, this sort of process is
merely establishing a platform for a breakout move, and sometimes it signals that the index in
question is running out of gas and is setting up for what may eventually turn out to be a stronger
correction from what is becoming more formidable resistance. Check out the price action for
the USD over 2012 - 2013.

1 comment:

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