About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, November 02, 2015

SPX -- You Folks Can Take It From Here

Back in late Sep., the SPX fell to its most oversold levels since late 2011. It has rallied since then
to a strongly overbought position currently. As an old guy who likes the occasional good trade, this
development was manna from heaven. So, I have taken the money and run. As I said when the
market went into its Sep. tailspin, I thought the guys jumped the gun because I could not figure out
a bear case. I conceded the market may have been overdue for a correction, but I did not see the
bear. I still do not, but also do not see the fundamentals as warranting a substantial and sustainable
upside from here. Since I would be happy with SPX 2160 by the end of next year, and since the index
has just topped 2100 again, I am pleased to book a large short term profit and take my chances that
the next 14 months will provide another opportunity or two to capitalize on a deep oversold.

The thinking here is that the easy, low risk, high return money has been made. It has been a neat
bull market from early 2009. The Fed is no longer providing the wonderful liquidity tailwind from QE
and the stock market is expensive on a valuation basis. There are some interesting bull stories that
are incubating now, but as Warren Buffet was fond of saying, this is a game where you are the batter
and there is no umpire and thus you can wait for your pitch. I plan to keep the blog going as before,
but when it comes to US equities, you now know where I stand.

SPX Daily

1 comment:

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