About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Gold Price


Amidst a longer term bear market, gold did have a couple of rallies in 2015. However, given the
inherent volatility of the gold price, playing on the long side has been barely worth the candle.
Gold Weekly

The gold bear reflects a substantial deceleration of inflation since latter 2011, weak commodites
markets, a softening of global economic growth in recent years and a sharp rise in the US dollar
since mid - 2014.

The chart is a classical bear market chart with gold having suffered two major price downlegs
since 2011and with the possibility of a third and final leg down in price to come some time ahead
a live option.

The global economy has been growing but not at all fast enough to push operating rates up to
counter significant global overcapacity. Moreover, ongoing financial stresses in the capital markets
have been mild and not broad enough to trigger a flight to gold. Global new business order rates
have been positive since Q 3 2012, but because of the magnitude of capacity overhang, excesses
are being corrected slowly via the painful process of plant closings and mothballing.

There are a couple of things that render gold worth keeping an eye on. The gold price is approaching
an oversold on intermediate term RSI, speculative long side interest is low and has plunged in
recent weeks and the USD is struggling to get above resistance at the 100 level (Top panel of the
chart).

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