Since the SPX failed to make a decisive new high today, there is a short term mechanical sell
signal in place which some traders will follow. Perhaps more importantly, the uptrend line for
the SPX will hit 2100 at the end of next week and this will force more traders to decide whether
they want to continue to be in the SPX on the long side or whether there are better spots
elsewhere. The action in the SPX since Oct. '14 is about to be squeezed down to an intolerably
tight range and thus trend in the market will be forced to change for good or ill. SPX Daily
The positive element here is that the SPX is not overbought shorter term and thus has some
room to move up further.
I want to add a fundamental note here as well . March was another miserable weather month
for the eastern two-thirds of the US. For most of Mar., the mean daily temp. in my area of NY
was 18 F. The current month was better, but we had snow flurries yesterday and are a under a
hard freeze warning for this overnight. The point here is that with unseasonable weather,
economic data for Mar. at least may be suppressed again as in Q 1 '15.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!