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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Oil Price -- Big Test Ahead

The oil price continues in its first sustained uptrend since the crash. The recent action has seen
WTI crude take out previous highs so far this year, and oil is now headed up to an RSI overbought
for the first time since Jun.2014. The strong positive price action for crude is consistent with a
typical seasonal spurt  over Mar. / Apr. in anticipation of a rise in gasoline demand. If the oil price
follows the conventional seasonal pattern, it will top out shortly and not see sustainable strength
again until the end of Jul. '15. Traders currently long the market need to consider carefully
whether to hold those positions through the early summer. WTIC Daily

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