The SPX has stayed in an uptrend off the Oct.'14 lows. It has thus been holding trend support,
but has had greater difficulty holding the higher ground on rallies since the end of Mar., with
the resistance line now having moved up to SPX 2100. SPX Daily
It is worth noting that not only is 2100 short term resistance but it has become longer term
overhead as well, as the uptrend line from the late 2011 lows is now sitting a little above 2100.
For the short term then, it is all about whether the SPX can move on up to push nicely above
the 2100 level or whether the market is falling into an expanded trading range. The two bottom
channels of the chart show relative strength lines for the MS World index (excluding the US)
and euro Stoxx 600 compared to the SP 500. The global market ex the US is outperforming
the SPX and the Stoxx 600 is a particular favorite of traders who have moved the "QE moment-
um playbook" away from the US over to Europe to catch the ECB's QE program. The two
relative strength charts clearly show positive trend reversals in favor of major offshore markets
as opposed to the SP 500 after the SPX held sway for an extended period.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!