I have been expecting the stock market to make an interim or intermediate term top here in Jul.
The SPX was becoming substantially overbought on the weekly chart, and the weekly cyclical
fundamental indicator has lately failed to progress reflecting a flattening of sensitive materials
prices as well as a lack of progress in the reduction of unemployment insurance claims. The
SPX is trading a little below its 7/03 all time high of 1985, but it has hardly rolled over. This
leaves the question of whether a top is in place open. SPX Weekly
The heavy technical overbought remains in place, but one always has to realize that overbought
markets reserve the right to get themselves even more overbought. As the chart shows, such
occurred in May, 2013 when the SPX bolted higher before registering a pull back. Back then,
of course, the market had the powerful tailwind of the full-on QE 3 program, a luxury it no
longer enjoys to the fullest. For my part, we'll just have to see whether the bulls can push it
significantly higher or not.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!