Short Term Interest Rates
The Fed continues to suppress the very short end of the credit market and there is no firm
indication when It will lift the FFR%. Using a model based on 100 years of short rate,
inflation and credit supply / demand data, the 91 day T-Bill rate should now be around 2.2%
reflecting continuing low inflation but rising short term credit demand. So, the Fed, concerned
with idle labor resources particularly, now trails the curve suggested by the economy by a
significant margin.The hawks on the Board will press Ms. Yellen so long as the economy
does not regress to stall speed.
The FOMC today cut the securities purchase rate to $25 bil. a month, on its way to zero later
in the year. Measured yr/yr, QE has added 24% to the Fed Bank Credit through late Jul., but
looking forward to mid - 2015, Fed Credit may well only be 2% higher if the economy holds
up reasonably. Thus, the economy is going to become increasingly more dependent on the
private sector for liquidity growth and as we look out a year, the likelihood grows that short
rates will also start to rise.
There are plenty of discussions out there as to when and and how fast short rates will rise.
I appreciate all that, but I remain keenly sensitive to how well business and investor
confidence hold up as the QE program unwinds to completion. So far so good.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!