The cyclical bull continues on. Momentum indicators are trending positively but are starting
to approach overbought levels for the first time since late 2013. SPX Weekly There is room to
the upside short run, but the move off the spring low of 1820 is well advanced.
The market has been more sensitive to the weekly economic data. My weekly cyclical funda-
mental indicator (WCFI) is up 6.2% for the year so far, while the SPX is up 6.1%. Moreover,
the strength in the WCFI this year was primarily from mid - Feb. to the end of May, which
corresponds to the bulk of the positive action for the SPX. The WCFI was essentially flat
through Jun. which also corresponds to the anemic positive action for the market during the month.
Two important items in the WCFI -- unemployment insurance claims and sensitive materials
prices -- have provided no lift to the broader indicator since May. Since both these elements
of the WCFI are forward looking, it means market players are looking for confirmation that
the economy is set to stay on a stronger footing.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!