Gold has seemed ripe for a cyclical bounce on stronger monthly economic data and and
the assumption of a moderate cyclical acceleration of inflation. Since the autumn of 2013,
the dollar value of industrial output measured yr/yr has advanced from 4.2% to 6.5% through
May. In addition, the oil price has been rising from a seasonal low in Jan., 2014. These are
mild cyclical positives for gold but in no way supported the price rocket we observed for
bullion from late 2013 into Mar. Gold Price Daily
The gold price may have have benefited form the inability of the SPX to break out from the
1850 resistance area earlier this year. Note on the chart how it lost luster when the SPX did
subsequently move above 1850 (SPX is in bottom panel of chart).
The gold price is below its high for the year but is on a more sustainable path of recovery
to reflect expected stronger inflation. But there was a lesson in the early going which is
that gold may benefit rotationally if the stock market falters. Weaker gold and a stronger
stock market since the autumn of 2011 suggests strongly a stocks sell off, should one occur, may temporarily benefit gold even if the cyclical case for the metal is not consistently supportive
as some gold bulls return to the fold.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!