The market hit an overbought situation early in the week, and with no momentum follow -
through, traders are taking some money off the table. SPX Daily Chart Note the RSI and
MACD readings for early in the week. The SPX was not strongly overbought against its 25
day m/a. The market remains in an uptrend off the Apr. 2014 and will remain so if it can
hold above 1920 in the next couple of trading days. You should probably take note of a
prospective reversal in the downtrend of the VIX. If such occurs, this signal would imply
that the developing complacency among players could be evaporating and that a degree of
further price attrition may lie ahead.
Traders did not care for the data on retail sales released today. Sales were positive but less
than hoped for. There was also a strong move up in the oil price which is seen as threatening
the growth of discretionary income. With QE tapering proceeding, players are less forgiving
of economic data shortfalls.
Oil traders have their first little bit of excitement in a while and aim to make the most of it
as the news tape from Iraq unfolds. How much further down the road to Iraq's dissolution
this all goes is still a tough issue. The Kurds may well have opted out of the union today
by taking Kirkuk, a northern city / oil center they have long considered their own. Whether
the new jihadis can make into Baghdad remains to be seen. If the US is prepared to initiate
air strikes, the militants will need to disperse quickly as proud columns of troops in trucks
can be eliminated fast by US attack aircraft. And, if the US is prepared to use air strikes,
the militants will be hard pressed to carry their fight to the big oil fields and terminals in
the far south of Iraq. The other key swing factor in the early going will be Shia troops or
militias and whether and where they might be prepared to join the battle.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!