About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, March 14, 2014

Stock Market -- Weekly

Fundamentals
Monetary liquidity growth remains strong yr/yr but momentum is fading as Fed taper program
takes hold. With little genuine historical precedent, this remains enigmatic to me. Sustainability
of market's p/e ratio may be in question.

Inflation rate and short term interest rates are low. Enduring positives.

Weekly cyclical fundamental indicator (WCFI) is trending up. Progress of WCFI since market
low in latter 2011 is intact but trails the market indices by a country mile reflecting dramatic
increase of p/e ratio.

Right ahead we have another FOMC policy outcome (Mar.19) and we'll see more on Putin's
regional mania with possible strong economic repercussions if Vladdy keeps up the push in
Ukraine. Time for the EU to rise and shine. West vs. Russia economic warfare cannot be ruled
out. A full plate for the next week.

SPX commands a mild premium p/e based on cyclically elevated earnings. Risk is higher.

Technicals
Weekly up trends from latter 2011 and late 2012 still intact, although market is mildly extended
off the 2011 low. Since late 2012, trend has strongly beaten indicators when it comes to the
direction of the market. SPX Weekly

Basic roundtrip in the SPX since YE '13 has allowed the intermediate term overbought in place
to run down to a mild level.

 Failure of the SPX to hold for long above the 1850 resistance line sets up issue of a secondary
or low momentum top which formed earlier in the month. Such can precede trouble but need
not.

Parting Thought
consensus of the press and geopolitical pundits has it that Putin and the West have thought
everything through and that both sides believe they have the bases covered. Don't count on it.

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