About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Gold Price

The gold price did build in a mild "safety" premium as the Russia vs. Ukraine crisis built up
a little steam, but the price cooled recently as there was no military follow through by Russia
beyond Crimea. Obviously, this geopolitical situation could grow worse in a hurry if the
Russians send in armed force to take more territory in the region. Gold at $1338 oz. could
test down to $1320 -25 if the UKR / RUSS situation stabilizes. Gold Price Weekly

Notice that Gold did flunk its first test at resistance close to $1400 over this past week. The
metal remains in an uptrend, but safe haven and / or cyclical bulls need to keep this mind
going forward.

The chart shows the gold price with two longtime favorite travel buddies -- the oil price and
an industrial commodities composite ($DJAIN). The oil price has entered a seasonally strong
period, but there is some supply overhang in oil as unseasonally strong winter demand for
heating fuels winds down. Oil is expected to regain positive footing again as we move further
into spring. Industrial commodities prices have been punished by slower global economic
growth in recent years, but I still look for firming global demand as the year progresses.

Gold did get a little pricey in recent weeks, but there is still a reasonable chance it can advance
for more mundane cyclical reasons.

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