About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, May 28, 2012

Stock Market -- Short Term

Back on 5/24, the SPX fell to -5.3% the 25 day m/a. Down 5% the 25 m/a is usually a good spot
for a market bounce. We did get one this past week, but the impulse was not impressive and is
a little suspect. Moreover, the bounce did not come from the kind of "sold out" levels of breadth
and selling pressure one would like to see. The market is now mildly oversold in the short run
and I am content to see how it behaves this week. $SPX daily

My weekly cyclical indicator edged down again this past week, but has yet to show the kind of
rapid downward move which occurred in both the late spring of 2010 and 2011. Fed Bank
Credit is leveling off following a mild downturn seen earlier in the year and sits near the level
observed at the end of QE 2 in mid - 2011. The SPX sits nearly even with its level as of 6/30/11
and for those who like to keep score has yet to show it can sustain an advance without the Fed's

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