The weekly leading economic indicator index from the Economic Cycles Research Institute
(subscription required for the better research) is one of several weekly measures I follow to
gauge the economic outlook. ECRI - WLI
The substantial increase in the volatility of this index since 2008 has bothered not only ECRI
but many others who follow it. I think the index has been buffeted by the tremendous volatility
of sensitive materials prices, and I suspect, by the abject collapse of US housing. Be that as it
may, the index has properly reflected the changes in momentum of US and global industrial
production as well as global trade. My guess now is that the US may stay out of recession as
long as the index does not break sharply below the 120 level.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!