The stock market has been on a strong tear since late Nov. '11. Run ups at this angle of trajectory
often end after 3 - 4 months, with more extended high angle runs reserved for the opening legs of
cyclical bull markets and not ones with a reasonable degree of maturity. That said, there is no
clear technical reason now apparent for concluding that that the advance should end soon, only
that it would be wisest to look for more modest progress and some volatility ahead.
The chart describes a sharp but nevertheless low volatility advance in progress and one which has
seen moderate overboughts quickly brought to heel by mild retreats and consolidations. Daily SPX
The weekly SPX has been my mainstay for the current run. The indicators displayed with the
weekly chart are all in positive mode, and moreover suggests that the SPX could squeeze out a
couple of more weeks of upside before the indicators get a little too lofty. Weekly SPX
Note that on the weekly chart, I compare the SPX to its 40 wk. m/a. And here, there is a solid
moderate overbought condition which is powerful enough based on history to switch on the
amber or caution light.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!