About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Retail Sales -- Quick Note

Retail sales including for restaurants is classified as a coincident economic indicator, but
it really lies somewhere between a leading economic indicator and a coincident one. There is
decent retail sales data going back to shortly after WW 2, but most services stick with the
reformulated data from 1992. At any rate, retail tends to trend fairly steadily higher during
periods of economic expansion, and you should note when the retail trend shifts lower or starts
to sputter. These are usually solid warnings the economy is edging toward difficulty. The
trend of sales is solidly up for now: retail sales chart

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