About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Risk On Vs. Risk Off

Key series such as the real wage and bank lending are still subdued enough that I am not yet
convinced the economic recovery is self-sustainable. So, I continue to watch the relative strength
of the SP 500 (SPY) against the long Treasury ($USB). A rising RSI for the SPY tells me that
investors continue to have confidence in the economy, while a falling RSI messages that confidence
has started to wain. The RSI for the SPY against the bond continues to advance, but the progress
is far enough along that investors are going to be watching their own calculations of risk on vs.
risk off more carefully going forward. SPY vs. Long Treas.

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