The market is overbought short term and my e-inbox suggests this issue is being widely discussed.
The thrust up in recent months has been strong enough to indicate the market has further upside a
bit down the road even if it is short term overbought. One measure I use is the 30 day m/a of NYSE
advancing stocks. When it moves up around 1800, that is evidence more upside is ahead as time
progresses, with this result holding about 85% of the time based on data running back over 20 years.
My weekly SPX chart shows the market is still in a firm uptrend. It is overbought against the 13
wk. m/a, and I would like to see the 40 wk. m/a begin to turn decisively higher to confirm a longer
run for the market, but I am ok with it now as my 40 wk. price oscillator remains in a clear but still volatile uptrend $SPX
My weekly cyclical coincident indicator continues its rise off an interim low set on 9/23/11 at a
reading of 222.4. Since then the indicator has moved ahead by 7.1% to the 238.2 level paced by
lower unemployment insurance claims, and more recently, by a sharp recovery underway in
sensitive materials prices. Weekly sales and production data also continue positive. Since 9/23,
the SPX is up by 15.8%, and that may also be a sign the market is a bit overbought in the short run.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!