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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Stock Market -- Daily Chart

My argument for weeks has been that the market is in an uptrend but that it needed to take out the
closing highs at the end of Oct. 2011 to lay any claim on further and substantial upside. There was
a period of several days over the past week where the SPX failed to take out the Oct. close of
1285, but it has now done that, and the automatic caution which comes in to play when an index
stumbles at resistance has been laid to rest. Other factors that raise caution will no doubt come
along with time, but my work does not indicate serious negative issues now.

The SPX shows a confirmed shorter run uptrend on RSI, MACD and ADX. $SPX  The 200 day
price oscillator is also in an uptrend and is running positive against median as shown here. It is
important to note that the intermediate term indicator (200 day Osc.) is rather volatile and this
suggests to me when one looks forward over the next couple of months, one has to be prepared
for some degree of continuation in market volatility.

The market is a little overbought short term on my 25 day oscillator. Frankly, if this rally is to
be indicative of a longer duration upleg, it would be nice to see a relatively fast run in the SPX
up the 1325 area over the next week or so. But, you take things as they come along.

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