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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Stock Market -- Technical

The market remains in an uptrend on both short and intermediate term accounts. However, my
argument has been that, to be more persuasive, the SPX needs to take out Oct. month end closing
high of 1285. That level proved to be formidable resistance last autumn, and wouldn't you know
the market stumbled twice today trying to get through it on the way up. So, that's twice overhead
failure in the past two months. Normally, that would be a fairly strong mechanical sell signal, but
it is possible that traders are antsy with the employment figures due out this Fri. One thing to
watch then is if the market either takes out 1285 before Fri. or stalls short of it but hangs on.
That would mean a positive surprise on Fri.could take the SPX higher.

My 25 day price oscillator indicates the SPX has moved into the low end of moderate overbought
territory, and that does set up a situation where the more jittery traders could exit forthwith, and
where the SPX could easily retreat from the current 1277 area down to 1210. Fri. and its news
will come soon enough, but traders first need to watch for an imminent fail in the upmove because
of the inability to take out that 1285 level today.


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