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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, July 29, 2011

Stock Market -- Technical

The $SPX is at a critical level regarding the cyclical uptrend in place since 3/09. It is important to
note that the trendline up has not had to be redrawn since the intermediate low of late 06/10 and a
successful test of that new line just last month. However, with the down move this week, the
trend is once again to be tested in the days ahead. Now, a sharp break below today's closing low
of 1292 would not necessarily signal  the end of the curent cyclical bull. But it would mark clearly
the end of the second upleg of the market and would clearly suggest that another upleg, should we get
one, is likely to involve a less positive trajectory.

As fate would have it, it seems like a good time to test this market. The US Gov. stands in disgrace
as It toys with raising the debt limit to avoid default, and a slow US economic recovery is not just
more vulnerable to shocks, but is showing only ever so scant evidence that it could be setting up to
do better.  Remember as well, adding significant fiscal drag over the next 12 months to appease the
deficit hawks via spending cuts could hurt substantially.

I have linked to the weekly $SPX chart below. Please note some interesting observations:
RSI: It is in a marked downtrend. It is currently at a weakish 47, with the more powerful and
defining rallies on the weekly chart coming at below 35.

MACD: As you would expect, it being a bull market, MACD has been above the zero line most of the
time. It is mildly negative now -- an indicator a break of trend could be at hand -- but it is also close
to a testing  its trend.

ADX: +D-1 is about 16 now. The stronger rallies have come when +D-1 is down around the 10 or
below area.

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