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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, July 01, 2011

Stock Market -- Short Term Technical

For several weeks, I have been contending there was a nice, tradeable upmove in store for stocks.
(See 6/06 and 6/10 posts.) Well, we have it and I have been targeting a range of 1335 - 1360 as
an appropriate level for the SP 500.

This week's quick trip on the up escalator has brought the market to a moderate short term over-
bought. The move has eclipsed recent prior overboughts, and this is a healthy sign. The move
came after a double closing low, another healthy sign. The trajectory of the advance is of course
too rapid to be sustained, so there will be a pullback before long. Today's action confirms the
uptrend for the short run.

I have to confess that I do not have a strong view as to whether this rally marks the beginning of
a new and sustainable upleg which could run for a good several months. I am now seeing the market
in an extended trading range, although how I am marking it as not classical but as more nearly
conjectural. $SPX daily.

My reasoning for introducing the hurdle of a range bound market has to do with the top the SPX
made in early May. This does not look to me to be a top of consequence compared to the two
prior ones made earlier in the year. That so-far cyclical top I characterize with the decidedly
non-technical term "wuss top." I want to see if the market can clear that 1350 - 1360  area
with some authority.

Since I went long near the recent lows, I cleared out my position today but may well re-enter
on the long side when the market forms a more sensible trajectory.

I think many players were caught flat footed on this rally because of the arduously slow way in
which the selling pressure dried up ahead of it. Nice to see that again in an age of volatility
and bombastic commentary.

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