Gold Bugs Frothing At The Mouth

Boy, higher inflation this year and then Uncle Al says the Fed will
no longer publish M-3 after 3/26/06! Sacre Bleu! The Gold bugs see
a plot hatched to hide the inflationary ways of the central bank!
Get the women and children off the streets! Buy gold in a hurry they
declaim.

The best time to buy gold is late in the first quarter or in the second
quarter of the year when commercial demand is in a lull. Commercial demand
gets rolling later in the year to provide the metal for holiday gifts
in the West, and the wedding seasons in South Asia (India, Thailand etc.).
Gold can spike up late in the year on last minute commercial needs and
speculation of a sharp seasonal move up in the commodities markets.

I put Gold's commercial value at $440 per oz. under normal commercial
supply/demand conditions. At $493 an oz. now, it is well over what I would
want to pay for it as an inflation hedge speculation. Maybe I'll wait until
spring of 2006 and hope to pick up some below $450.

Stock Market -- Technical

The "Day of Atonement" rally half-facetiously anticipated in the
10/12 technical note came to pass right on time, putting an
exquisite but understandable squeeze on the bears just after the
market seemed to have broken down clearly. The Street simply
spent part of September accumulating stock to distribute it out
on the turn.

The market is clearly overbought short term and is slightly above
the top of the lengthy compression range in effect since June.
However, it did bounce convincingly up from long term support
(70 week M/A) and my internal supply/demand indicator shows an
overbought but sturdy advance.

The longer term price momentum indicators remain very anemic and
directionless and raise the question of whether the advance is but
a seasonal one that could meander into early January following a
correction at some point in the next week or two.

Key intermarket factors have been positive for stocks, notably a
rally in Treasuries and a weaker oil price. Reversals in these
sectors would probably undercut the enthusiasm for stocks.

For me, stronger readings on long term price momentum measures
are needed to warrant more than light exposure.

Stock Market -- More On The Profile

S&P 500: 1233

I wanted to discuss further some of the risk factors in the
stock market environment.

Liquidity leading indictors such as Federal Reserve Credit and
the adjusted monetary base (St. Louis Fed) remain very anemic in
growth. Not surprisingly, real money growth -- M-1 and M-2 -- are
now down yr/yr on a % basis. Normally this is threatening to
prospects for continued economic expansion. However, as often
previously discussed, banks have switched funding to low and no
reserve deposits not counted in to M's 1 and 2. Even so, the
expansion is less well anchored because with no customary growing
base of liquidity, the economy is running on a mix of incomes and
increasing leverage only.

I also look at the earnings / price yield on the S&P 500 compared to
the "risk free rate" -- the 3 mo. T-Bill. The S&P e/p yield is 6.0%
based on 12 mo. earnings while the Bill is near 4%. This indicates
a still rather moderate risk level, but the gap has been closing as
the Fed raises short rates.

Important as well is inflation risk. The market has lost most of
its positive momentum over the past eighteen months because of a
sharp acceleration of inflation, which in turn, has reduced the
p/e multiple or earnings capitalization rate. In short, investors
have been raising the ROI% hurdle rate. Now the CPI yr/yr % change
may ease a bit for a couple of months, but the inflation rate trend
is still up.

To date, the gathering of incremental risk has acted only as a drag
on the market's progress and not as a negative trigger. But you have
to keep track.

Fed To Stop Publishing M-3 Money Aggregate

Or, Uncle Al's Revenge....

Readers of this blog know that way back in 1992, Uncle Al
and the gang eliminated or greatly reduced reserve requirements
on a variety of large and jumbo time deposits ostensibly to
provide extra liquidity as the commercial banks stepped in
to the mortgage market in place of the S&Ls which had failed
or were being merged out. This was a legitimate response by
the Fed at the time.

As the economic expansion progressed and the Fed started to
raise rates, the banks quickly learned to reduce the cost of
funding by switching to the reserve-exempt deposits to fund
lending operations. By 1995, the Fed should have reversed
course and re-imposed the reserve requirements on the big
deposits. It did not and the banks used this loophole for
years to feed the economic and stock market booms. The banks
also began to use the RP market more aggressively to fund
FX traders, hedge fund managers and the mutual fund industry.
They also started using RPs to fund lending out of the pot,
a cheaper way to raise money than Fed Funds where other banks
will charge 20% or more in a tight Funds market.

Rather than re-claim the control that is rightly theirs, Uncle
Al has decided to stop reporting the data and to leave analysts
to scramble to find appropriate proxies.

There will be a vigorous and vocal protest from a number of
economists. The Fed might spin an explanation, but many will
be unhappy and only time will tell whether the Fed will relent.

There are proxies that can be used in place of M-3, although
I will dearly miss the Repo data (now a $550 billion item).

Uncle Al has whipped a digit on his detractors in his final hours.

M-3 is slated to dropped starting 3/23/06.

Stock Market Profile

S&P 500: 1220

I continue to employ a "pocket change only" exposure to
the US stock market. We are well past the low risk / high
return phase of this still extant cyclical bull market.

Risk to the market continues to rise, but in fairness to the
bullish, the risk is coming up from extremely low levels seen
in Q4 2002. Moreover, confidence in the economy remains fairly
high as well. But it is not the type of "easy money" period I
favor.

My S&P 500 market tracker stands at 1150. It declined sharply
with the surge of the CPI in September to 4.7% yr/yr. I have
given some thought to smoothing out this unexpectedly large
lurch in the CPI to give the market a somewhat higher multiple,
but decided not to so as to avoid fiddling each month with
the inflation input. I doubt we will see yr/yr inflation stay
at this high level for too long, so the value of the market
may be understated at 1150 or 15.3x current operating earnings.

My earnings model has been holding up well, but there has been
some internal slippage, as the continuation of reasonable top
line or sales growth is increasingly more dependent on pricing
rather than volume growth. Cost inputs remain under control
reflecting good productivity growth and mild wage/benefit
pressures. So, many companies should still be experiencing
profit margin expansion.

To qualify as a "normal" cyclical bull market, the S&P would have
to reach 1360 by year's end or early Jan. 2006. Statistically, that
is a tall order at this point. The earnings underneath the market
have held up very well, but the market p/e ratio has been clipped
by the acceleration of inflation starting in mid-2004.

I have not given up on this market yet. With the overall operating
rate for the economy below 80%, we are far below effective capacity
and not in imminent danger of over heating. Secondly, the progress
of the market relative to a broad liquidity measure such as M-3
has not been so strong to date as to leave one concerned.

So, there is plenty of upside, but to realize it, the surge in
commodities inflation which has been driving inflation higher needs
to at least level off so that the Fed does not have to put the
economic expansion at ever greater risk to choke inflation pressures.
For now, the drivers in the commodity sector are fuels -- oil and
natural gas. We are in a seasonally weak period for fuels right now,
so a better test of the power of fuels pricing trends likely awaits
the closing days of 2005 and early next year.

I have been looking for weakness in oil and gas prices, but the
declines to date off the Katrina induced highs have fallen short
of expectation. Recovery of US production has been slow, and OPEC's
solemn promise to boost its output appears to have been a bluff.

I am guessing now that late January, 2006 will be a critical time for
the market and for the Fed as that will be an important window to
measure continuing inflation pressure, economic progress without some
of the recent distortions, and the arrival of new Chair Bernanke.

More on the stock market in upcoming days.

Commodities Inflation

As discussed in prior posts, I have pointed out that the
current surge in commodities price aggregates, although
not so broadly based, has been the most powerful we have
witnessed in over thirty years.

The historical record shows that grand commodities inflations
begin in sudden and dramatic fashion, almost "out of the blue"
as it were. They tend to follow upon long periods of price
stability and, on occasion, deflation.Thus, prior to a
sudden breakout of upward price pressure, there is usually a
long interval of underinvestment in the capacity to supply
the market which results in a jump in pricing when demand
does finally accelerate.

Grand commodities inflations can last for periods of up to
15 - 20 years. Commodities composites at wholesale can
easily triple and quadruple over such periods. Interestingly,
oil per barrel is now trading about six time above its 1999
low. In short, these are very powerful events, and when one
is underway, it will in a cumulative fashion have a pronounced
effect on the general price level, as measured say by the CPI.

I bring this up for a couple of reasons. first, the power of
the recent run in the CRB and wholesale commodities composites,
following a long dormant period, strongly suggests to me that
another grand bout of commodities inflation is underway.
Secondly, although run-ups in commodities prices can be
squelched for a while by rising interest rates and a tightening
of liquidity, the upward pressure on prices tends to resume
in a strong fashion when the rate / liquidity pressures are
relaxed. This occurs because of the long lead time necessary
to bring large incremental capacity on stream (Developing
small increments to capacity generally proves uneconomic.)

Thus, for the third time in the past one hundred years, we
may well have another major upleg of inflation to contend
with. I lay this out as a prima facie case, but one which
I think has some merit.

I did play the big 1968 - 1983 commodities cycle. I bought
some gold but enjoyed excellent fortune in the grain markets,
which as irony would have it, have yet to participate in this
round.

Surprisingly, it is possible to make good money in stocks and
even a little money in bonds during commodities booms. But
to be successful, you have to re - equilibrate risk and return
assumptions and not use the more favorable profile that likely
obtained during the lengthy preceding period of commodity
price stability.

Monetary Policy Update

We have now baby stepped up to a FF rate of 4.0%. Fed/FOMC
liqudity measures -- Fed Credit and the adjusted monetary base
remain constrained, although the money base did pop up for a
week or two past Katrina.

M-3 growth has accelerated sharply this year as bankers switch
funding from regular reserve deposits to the larger no or low
reserve deposits. The banks have the window open to lend and
loan growth continues brisk. Ironically, the system liquidity
embodied in M-3 has no doubt helped the energy pit traders and
hedgies keep rolling.

Uncle Al continues to push up rates gently, hoping to coax a break
in the energy driven commodities market. Tricky business. Just so
you know, recent experience (1995-2000) shows that the CRB commodities
index did not buckle until after market short rates exceeded 5.0%.

The Bernanke Appointment

As was widely expected, GWB selected Ben Bernanke to replace
Uncle Al come the end of 1/06. This was a wise choice. The
Bernanke facial countenance reminds me of a rotogravure of a
nineteenth century British scientist, someone like the great
empiricist John Stuart Mill. Unlike Greenspan, who, when all is
said and done, was a laissez-faire theorist on the economy
and the markets, Bernanke is much more sharply focused on
the-matter-fact and how economic developments cumulate to
produce the future path of an economy. In contrast to Uncle
Al, he is at once more of a pragmatist and far more plain
spoken as well.

His primary interest from a policy point of view is to have the
Federal Reserve provide a monetary environment of stability and
to avoid policies which are so one sided as to increase economic
volatility and produce economic trends which may be extreme.
His concern is that once extremes are met within the economy,
reactive processes may be needed which in turn will produce
their own excesses and deficiencies, thus taking positive,
directional initiative away from the Fed. Thus, he is at once
an anti-Greenspan and an anti-Volcker who sees the past twenty
five years of policy as having been needlessly tumultuous and
risky.

He has also expressed a strong interest in inflation targeting,
suggesting a longer term low inflation rate consistent with
assuring a stable, growing economic environment. This will not
be an easy sell at the Fed, since many on staff will be tempted
to say that they have been endeavoring to do that. Bernanke
wishes to de-mystify this process and to foster much clearer
communication with all constituencies. However, what most
interests me about the concept is that it may well free up the Fed
to use its tools -- rate setting, liquidity provisioning and
reserve regulation -- in more flexible and pragmatic ways.

Bernanke's practical and empirical approach is very congenial to
me and I am happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Inflation For Idiots

In its 9/05 CPI report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics again
but still belatedly acknowledged the growing impact of rising
fuel costs on inflation. The whopping 1.2% increase in the
monthly CPI puts the yr/yr rate of inflation at 4.7%. Note
though, that the BLS is still fibbing about the "core" rate of
inflation which it posted as 2.0% yr/yr. ("Core" inflation
excludes the volatile foods and fuels components of the CPI).
Apparently, no one at BLS ever goes shopping, because if they
did, they would know prices are popping up like dandelions in
springtime.

The statistical scam here, I think, is to more fully load the
fuels prices into the CPI first, which they are doing, and then
to start loading the effects of the several year fuels price surge
into the core, with the hope that the worst of the price surge
in the food and fuels component is now behind us. Then, as the
"core" inflation rate rises, the Street can say, "look the
leading edge of inflation is simmering down."

Now, don't get all indignant, Presidents have been cooking the
economic statistics for years now. Johnson and Nixon were
heavy handed chefs. Clinton was by far the most earnest and
attentive fibber, and George W. is just in-your-face cynical.
Fed chairmen from Arthur Burns to Greenspan have been their
willing accomplices.

Some of the idiots out there are going to try to keep the old
scam going. Here's Morgan Stanley chief economist Steve Roach:
"Energy is being driven by a unique set of forces -- supply and
demand -- that are not bearing down on other goods and services."
Guess Steve does not go shopping either.

So, where does all of this leave us? Well, based on 4.7% inflation,
Fed Funds should be at 6.5%. Long Treasuries should be at 7.5%
and the p/e ratio for the S&P 500 should be 15.3X with an index
value of 1146. Interest rates are so low relative to these indicated
levels because rates are being priced off the low "core" rate readings.
Depositors are being ripped off and bondholders are surrendering
wealth after taxes on the income streams are figured in.

I am expecting fuels prices to ease because those markets should be
coming into better balance. I also expect the "core" inflation rate
to go up. For example, US produced auto prices have returned up to
ordinary retail from the employee discount levels. Moreover, the
BLS will have to start showing the effects of higher fuel costs
on all items or the fib will grow too large to correct without major
dislocation.

My best guess now is the CPI, measured yr/yr, will slowly drop back
into a range of 3-4%. From my perspective, that implies that interest
rates remain too low and that the current market p/e of 15.9x estimated
12 mo. operating earns. through 9/30/05 is reasonable.

Realistically, given the hanky panky with the inflation rate,
each player has to decide for himself or herself what a reasonable
inflation estimate is and factor that into his/her return
expectations for the capital markets.

Stock Market -- Technical

S&P 500: 1177

My primary technical indicator gave me a sell signal on 8/16 with
the S&P 500 above 1230. I paid it no mind because I could see the
market in a compression zone. I got a short term buy signal on
9/6 with the "500" at about 1215 and ignored it as well for the
same reason. I then got another sell signal on 10/4 at 1214 on
the index. This one is more worth notice, because it heralded
a break down from the compression zone and raised the question
of whether a more substantial decline might lie ahead,
with the prospect of the "500" falling to about 1075.

For fundamental reasons I have been playing only with pocket
change since March, 2005, so I am not at risk on the long
side. Moreover, we have moved into respectable oversold
territory, so I am not contemplating a short position.

I have not yet given up on the idea we remain in a cyclical
bull market, which makes me doubly loathe to short this baby.
So, I am going to see how resolution of the oversold
develops before taking action, although my sense is the
time to trade has drawn nigh. Frankly, I also remember my
days on Wall St. where we had a amusing rule: Sell on Rosh
Hashanhah (10/4 this year) and buy on Yom Kippur (tomorrow
10/13). It's a fun contrarian rule if you know the holidays
and not a bad one at that. So, I'll wait to see what the
next few days bring.

US Economy

Since this spring I have been pointing out that the
Federal Reserve was engaged in a classic form of
Greenspan fine-tuning, to wit, gently but persistently
raising interest rates and curbing basic monetary liquidity
with an eye to slowing down the economy enough to produce
a flattening of or deceleration of inflation pressure.
The Fed also desires to raise short rates enough to restore
a better balance between savings on the one hand, and
consumption/investment on the other.

A slowing of economic growth was a "gimme" since it had
already began decelerating even before the Fed first swung
in to action in mid-2004.

The Fed, as discussed in past months, has not had any real
luck with the rest of its plan. Inflation pressure has
accelerated and broadened, and there has not been enough
of an incentive created to get folks to boost savings.

When I extend present trends on the relevant economic
charts, I see we are headed for trouble by the end of the
second quarter, 2006. By then the US would be at effective
capacity, inflation pressures would have intensified
further, and short rates would have reached levels high
enough to curb credit demand and produce an economic
retrenchment. This scenario would be entirely
consistent with development of cyclical bear markets in
both stocks and bonds prior to yearend, 2005.

And, as we have seen in recent weeks, investors are
already beginning to shade the market multiple and to
push up yields.

I have also argued that the Fed should be moving in
50 basis point increments with Fed Funds, but that appears
to be neither here nor there as things now stand.

I am standing back from the bearish scenario because I
suspect fuel prices have risen to levels sufficient to
induce rising conservation and a rethinking of household
and business budgets. My best guess is that should
such eventuate, fuel prices would roll over and come
down substantially from present levels. This adjustment
would temporarily pressure economic momentum but might
allow the US to escape far more serious trouble next
year. I also need to direct attention once more to the
continuing very low growth of productive capacity, which
in turn puts more of the weight on demand suppression,
if the US is to escape a nasty time.

Short term, I am going to be focusing on commodities
prices, the leading inflation precursor, and on personal
consumption factors, for these are the two spots where
it can best be determined if the softer landing can be
achieved. At this stage, a pick up in the growth of
productive capacity can only be devoutly wished for.

Stock Market -- Technical

Well, my momentum and internal market supply / demand
measures continue to show a pattern of compression which
could extend up to another 2-3 weeks. I have avoided
trading since early August, since the extended compression
period has left me bereft of a sense of direction.

My guess is that to have a positive breakout from this
compression interval, we may need to see a rotational
change in leadership to groups that might benefit from
a weakening of oil and gas prices. The prevalent
psychology in the market is that the fuels sector has
advanced enough to damage profit margins for a broadening
array of companies, enough so that improving margins
for fuels producers will be more than offset by reduced
profitability for net fuels consumers. Players have also
been shading the market multiple to reflect expected
higher inflation readings near term. Thus a rekindling
of positive momentum of oil and gas prices and the
energy stock complex could produce a fuels led rally
that might not lead far at all, whereas as a rally
led by beneficiaries of lower fuels prices could be
explosive.

But first, let's get through the compression period.

Oil Rolling Over

I have made some terrific calls over the years, but making
calls in markets is not my strong suit. So any call I make
requires a disclaimer as to veracity.

That said, oil looks like it's put in a top up at $70 and
change per barrel. There's support at $60 and again in the
mid-50s, but I think it will drop to $45-50 per barrel before
year's end.

Globally, conservation efforts should be taking hold. Household
budgets will also be trimmed some as well. OPEC may well push up
production in the weeks ahead. The US will gradually add back 1
million bd. It is not hard to see surplus at the wellhead move
up to 3 million bd. for a while before the end of this year.
That should be enough to assuage the shortage mentality that has
gripped a market yet to experience any shortages.

To me, natural gas over $10 per mcf is also hyper-extended, and it
would not surprise me to see gas down under $10 before long either.

Rita Readies To Go To Work

In the end, trading is about booking profits. You do not
have to be first on the right side of the market and there
is no sin to leaving a little money on the table.

Rita is going to hit land full force about 24 hours from now.
It will be a major event and forecasters say that with the
jet stream way north, the storm will linger and not dissipate
as quickly as did Katrina.

Next week will be soon enough for me to look at opportunities.
I am particularly interested in seeing what the total bill
might be for reconstruction / redevelopment in the wake of
both storms and how economic policy will respond.

Two Tough Broads

First, Katrina rolled in and did phenomenal damage
in Miss. and Louisiana. Now Rita is humming through the
Gulf, building strength as it is nurtured by the warm waters.
It reached Cat. 4 quickly and could easily attain Cat.5.
The tightening of the storm's bands and rapid build up in
wind speed now suggest a smaller but more concentrated and
powerful storm than Katrina.

If it makes landfall in Texas as a Cat. 4 or 5, it will
do tremendous economic damage, particularly in coastal
and nearby residential areas. It is too early yet to tell
whether the storm will pass close enough to the Houston
Channel to damage up to 1 million bd. of potentially
exposed oil refining capacity. The storm needs to make
a Northward turn first before specific target areas
can be singled out.

If the storm stays strong and slams coastal Texas, the
resultant damage, coupled with the destruction wrought by
Katrina, could well throw economic policy into a cocked
hat, as legislators and the Fed struggle to come to grips
with a suitable reconstruction plan.

Rita, unlike Katrina, has the President's attention and
you can bet that Rita's damagees would have considerable
clout with GWB.

Traders are looking for an opening to grab a rally
along the lines of "sell the rumor (Rita's spectre), and
buy the fact (Rita's arrival)". Not my cup of tea unless
Rita somehow weakens and or misses the US.

I plan to see just what this broad winds up doing before
I take a serious look.

Fuels Conservation

Over the last several weeks, I have been thinking about
easy ways to conserve on fuel use without making any
substantial $ investment. And, as I thought about it,
I realized there were indeed a number of ways to cut down
on both gasoline and heating expenditure without greatly
crimping lifestyle. I have been doing so with the car
as have the wife and kids with theirs.

I bring it up because I suspect that many in the US, Canada
and Europe are thinking similarly. What is interesting,
I believe, is that fuels demand may still be quite a bit more
elastic than many of the fuel demand models and projections
I see. I do not think it is that difficult to knock 2% off
my demand or that of most others. Globally, that would restore
about 1.6 mil. bls a day to supply, a sizable increment.

I suspect it may be worthwhile to begin to incorporate
allowances for conservation into one's thinking about oil
and gas, because I doubt the price channels for both that
have been in place for the past year or two reflect it.

Post Bush Speech Impressions

People are reviewing how they can cut their fuel bills and whether
to trim or defer spending on the most discretionary items. So, maybe
oil/gas demand growth will decelerate for a while in the US at least.
Ditto for Europe.

The massive mid-Gulf redevelopment program will favor heavy industry,
construction, technology and industrial and commercial services.

Rotation should be pro-cyclical in the stock market.

As orders flow in to production sites, operating rates should rise,
and inflation pressures will broaden.

The bond market viewed rising oil and gas prices as a tax on consumption,
not an inflationary development. It will be vulnerable to rising operating
rates and higher sensitive materials prices.

Gold is a mug's game. It was safe enough to buy it in recent years
when it was selling below its commercial value, but it has just
moved above that level and the gold bugs and hucksters will be
coming out of the woodwork to tout it.

The economy is slowing now, but looks to pick up speed in 2006
as the big project down south unfolds. I do not know what the Fed
will do Sep. 20, but if the redevelopment program is as large as it
now looks to be, short rates could eventually go quite a bit higher.

There should be no dollar dumping from abroad, not when the US is
working out of an emergency situation. US retaliation would be swift.

You know George, he is going to try and borrow all he needs to
run the war, redevelopment and other programs that may be on
his short list. That could be a negative for the bond market.

The mis-handling of the rescue efforts in the Gulf in the
early going gutted Bush's presidency. If this inept man drops the
ball on the redevelopment program, his Party could be badly mauled
in 2006.

Stock Market -- Technical

S&P 500: 1234

The rally underway since the end of 4/05 has served to extend
the second leg of the cyclical bull market.

There are cycle factors which suggest the broad market should be
in a topping mode over the course of most of this month. Curiously
enough, most of the short and intermediate term indicators I follow
suggest the market turned up around the beginning of the month.
However, what is most striking to me is the substantial compression
in the proprietary momentum and internal demand / supply indicators
I follow. I have never been able to figure a sound method to tell
how extended compression periods will be resolved (topping out vs.
consolidation). It is clear there has been an ongoing battle between
the bears and the bulls since early July, 2005. My charts suggest
this battle could go on for up to four to six weeks before it is
resolved. When extended compression periods are resolved, the move
in the market, be it up or down, is usually sure and powerful.

I am a discretionary trader and a trend follower, but I have hesitated
to go long so far this month because of the compression I see in
the market. So, I may just wait until that issue is resolved before
deciding what to do.

Stock Market -- P/E ratio Recovers

The sharp spike in the price of crude led the stock
market to shade the multiple in anticipation of higher
inflation readings for August and perhaps September.
The fast erosion in the price of crude since Katrina
struck and oil market fears were finally realized has
produced a sharp relief rally which restores the p/e ratio
back up close to 17x, and leaves the market content with
a 3.0% inflation expectation. Currently the market reflects
a consensus that the worst in oil's steep price rise has
ended and that Katrina will not produce long
lasting economic damage. Note again though how sensitive
the market continues to be to the price of crude.

Curiously enough, the stock market remains the most
reasonbly priced sector of the capital market.

Monetary Liquidity Indicators

Uncle Al talked tough the other week out at Jackson Hole, WY.
But, in vintage style, the Fed has removed its foot from the
brake. It has been buying bonds for its own portfolio, and its
version of the monetary base has started to grow. I think this
development commenced to meet seasonal "add" needs to cover
back to school shopping and then the holiday season down the
road. It remains to be seen whether post-Katrina economic
developments will promote further easing. Note that the Fed,
by jiggling reserves day-to-day, can push short rates higher
even as it adds liquidity to the system.

I bring this up not only because it is worth watching to help
glean the intent of monetary policy, but also because the large
primary dealers, who are also big players in the currency,
commodity, and stock markets, use their knowledge of changes
by the FOMC to trade. These advance notice liquidity indicators
are FALLIBLE markets guides, but players need to pay attention.

When the Fed is adding to its portfolio, it tends to benefit
stocks and gold, and to hurt the dollar. This easing can
also lift the commodities markets and bond prices, but given
the peculiarities of this cycle, the bond market might grow
uncertain since the bulls have been counting on tight money.

The Fed can run this type of easing for a few months without
compromising its longer term intent, which based on the longer run
growth trends of Fed Bank Credit and it monetary base, continue
to support a restrictive policy approach.