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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Gold Bugs Frothing At The Mouth

Boy, higher inflation this year and then Uncle Al says the Fed will
no longer publish M-3 after 3/26/06! Sacre Bleu! The Gold bugs see
a plot hatched to hide the inflationary ways of the central bank!
Get the women and children off the streets! Buy gold in a hurry they

The best time to buy gold is late in the first quarter or in the second
quarter of the year when commercial demand is in a lull. Commercial demand
gets rolling later in the year to provide the metal for holiday gifts
in the West, and the wedding seasons in South Asia (India, Thailand etc.).
Gold can spike up late in the year on last minute commercial needs and
speculation of a sharp seasonal move up in the commodities markets.

I put Gold's commercial value at $440 per oz. under normal commercial
supply/demand conditions. At $493 an oz. now, it is well over what I would
want to pay for it as an inflation hedge speculation. Maybe I'll wait until
spring of 2006 and hope to pick up some below $450.

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