The historic and obvious overbought we saw at the end of Jan. '18 has corrected down to neutral.
The prospect of a significant increase in earning power is being realized via the large fiscal stimulus
programs enacted by the force of Trump / GOP. However, there is no evidence yet that it will add
to business sales or top line growth going forward. The Fed appears on track to tighten money
further as it shrinks its balance sheet and the monetary base and promises to keep on raising short
term rates in a gradual fashion. Some Trump influence downside is being felt. The US is taking a
hard line with China on trade and is now threatening Iran that it may walk away from the nuclear
deal and perhaps re-impose sanctions that could boost the oil price further. And, even though the
Trump / Kim prospective summit is intriguing and may be positive, wrong turns could leave us
staring at additional saber rattling. As well, Trump and the far right of the GOP may be readying
to provoke a judicial if not a constitutional crisis over the Mueller investigation. Why, it has
almost become what we used to call a Thinking Man's market.
The bulls are left to put their heads down and plow forward. Longer term momentum measures
are rolling over, but the market has drifted from big time overbought down to neutral, is holding
support at SPX 2600, and is maintaining its uptrend off the 2016 low. There are no clear signs that
a recession lies nearby and the inflation rate is not threatening yet to take off higher. Moreover,
if you accept liberal valuation standards, the SPX is fairly valued.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!