About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, April 30, 2018

SPX -- Monthly

As indicated in the Jan. '18 posts, the SPX in the 2800s hit a generational overbought reading which
suggested little intermediate term or 3 - 6 month upside. At 2648 today, the market remains in
correction mode with significant support at SPX 2600. In the briefest of summaries, all the
fundamental indicators I study suggest only very mild, perhaps sluggish, progress from here this
year. Looking out through mid - 2019, I have the SPX fairly valued at 2720, or 2.7% above the
current level. Taking a longer view of the chart, the recent downturn in momentum is the first since
the end of 2015, and offers little comfort.  SPX Monthly

The US has to continue to work through a very troubling Trump presidency during a period of
a maturing economic expansion. Going back to 2016, I have argued that this guy is a basic,
textbook case of egomania who, through his impulsiveness and overwhelming sense of self
aggrandizement, can wind up doing some good things and some very bad things. Given how
far the market has come since the very dark days of 2008 - 2009, I would be delighted if the
SPX could hold the mid - 2500s through his term. 


No comments: