About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, February 19, 2016

SPX -- Weekly

Fundamentals
After losing growth momentum steadily through last year, the economy did much better in January.
Aristotle, a favorite of mine, reminds us that one swallow does not make a summer, and I am good
with that here. Suffice it to say the US needed a more positive month. There were improvements
in both volumes and pricing power. I also remind again that we are about a week away from when
the price of oil turns up sharply on a seasonal basis and it will be very interesting if the bounce
comes, as the oil price has been a significant drag on SPX net per share. I am still open to seeing an
'up'  year for the SPX, but be mindful that even if the economy  performs decently through 2016,
there will still be the Fed to contend with as better economic performance will encourage It to
take another shot at raising rates. There is a substantial amount of crisis mongering among
investment strategists. Since my work does not show that all the hand wringing is appropriate yet,
I conclude The Street has a case of post traumatic jitters reaching back to 2007-08. Naturally, I
hope am right.

Technical
The market has rallied strongly recently, and there is even a hint of a double bottom this year
just above SPX 1800. The market also remains significantly oversold, but make no mistake,
continued progress upward is needed to reverse an extant primary downtrend. SPX Weekly
Should the current rally continue, look for a test of whether the SPX can take out its 13 wk.
m/a on the way up.

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