About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, February 26, 2016

Oil Price -- Important Seasonal Test Ahead

Producers / refiners are gearing up for the major northern hemisphere driving system. Typically,
the oil price tends to to rise strongly but irregularly from the end of Feb. through the end of Sep.
But not always. Last year the normal strong seasonal pattern was cut off during the summer as
oil production surged beyond expectations. It is perhaps unwise to make a price forecast this year.
Although oil production may have trouble surpassing that of the second half of 2015, inventories
are at high levels and it is far from clear that demand growth will surpass 2015 by much at all
given the list of reservations forecasters have about global economic growth in 2016. Still, this
represents a normally favorable period to trade oil long. The market is clearing the 50 day m/a
and is moderately oversold against the 200 day m/a. both MACD and RSI are trending up. The
USO ETF is shown in the bottom panel of the chart just ahead....$WTIC

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