About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, March 26, 2015

SPX -- Daily Chart

As cautioned back on Feb. 22, the market did break out to an new all time high but it was on
a short term momentum overbought and that set up folks for a fail. The SPX is trading below
the late Feb. highs, but it has not been nearly as bad as it could have been given the Feb. set up.
SPX Daily

The market rallied off trend support at 2040 toward mid Mar. and with the recent weakness is
back down at trend support once again. Thus as the month end approaches, the uptrend off the
Oct. '14 is about to be tested once more. The SPX is now mildly oversold on a price momentum
basis, so there could be a decent bounce. If the SPX can recover back up to 2100 by the end of
the month it will meet the minimum requirement to hold the major p/e ratio expansion uptrend
in place since late 2011. Should it do so, it may again fall into the "bends but does not break"
and "buy the dip" categories that have characterized this particular and lengthy uptrend for the
SPX.

The SPX has so far failed to maintain positive momentum since mid - Nov. 2014. This action
most likely reflects the loss of economic growth momentum and the  mild pressure on SPX
reported earnings from a strong US dollar coupled with weak resource based results. There is
not strong evidence to say that investors are worried yet about having the Fed boost short term
rates.



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