About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, March 04, 2015

Gold Price

The gold price has been in a bear market for several years now, but what is intriguing about it
has been the shelf of support around the $1200 level . Gold Daily

Gold has experienced trade worthy early in the year seasonal rallies in both 2014 and the current
year. The rallies did not hold, and here in 2015, we find gold back down to shelf support at
$1200. In an admittedly flippant argument back in late Nov. '14, I traced out how the gold
price might fare better this year, with my thought  being that gold might be dragged up by
a weaker US dollar as offshore QE programs might bring a firming of growth abroad and
erode the strong safe haven status given to the greenback since mid - 2014. I have been thinking
this would take place over the second half of the year. Although the blow out in the oil price
has made this roundabout argument shakier and perhaps also reduced gold's eventual upside, I
still think it is an interesting one given the usual positive economic response to QE programs by
major central banks. I suppose it would also help gold's case if the euro was to recover some
ground against the dollar as the EZ's economic prospects improve.

I have the US stock market primary fundamentals as still positive, but this does not preclude
either a price correction, or, as has been happening recently, the beginning of rotation out
of US equities to foreign stocks. I make this point because gold has struggled against the
surge of US stocks since latter 2011.

If you are partial to gold, you might want to keep this homily on the metal's possible potential
in mind.

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