About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Stock Market -- SPX

The end of QE by the Fed has hit home. The SPX has been closing below its Aug. '14 low
and this means we are looking at a down market. The SPX has broken important trend support
dating back to the autumn, 2011 lows, so this latest and long lasting powerful upleg of the
bull market has ended. Whether this important break of trend marks the end of the cyclical
bull market in force since late winter of 2009 or merely indicates the bull is alive but now on
vacation remains to be seen. The market is now volatile and unstable and I am not about to
start throwing numbers around for the SPX. History shows that sudden endings of large QE
programs are quite negative for stocks, but since this is the very first time we have had a
period of extended tapering of the program before its conclusion, I am content to let the chips
fall where they may (no joke intended).

The indicators show the SPX, despite its partial reversal today, remains oversold in the short
run and this is further confirmed by noting that the market is over 5% below its 25 day m/a.
the trend of the SPX and both the 10 and 25 day m/a 's are down, and the market is probably
a little overextended to the down side as well. SPX Daily

So, after nearly three years, we have a new ball game.

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