About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Stock Market -- Here We Are Again

The SPX has again declined to the neighborhood of it 100 day m/a. This has been the fail
safe point for all of the sell-offs since the end of 2012. SPX Daily

This is the eighth time we have seen this adventure. In the prior seven, the bears have started
growling, only to see the SPX rally on to new highs. Recalling an old Wall Street saw, My
wife said at lunch: "Yom Kippur can't come fast enough" (An old rule tells one to buy on
YK). Well, the SPX is mildly oversold in a market that has rolled over in the short run, and
we are simply going to have to wait and see if the bulls can snatch victory here for the eighth
time or whether something less positive or even outright negative is about to happen.

I have stayed with the technicals in recent posts because the pattern of the advance in the SPX
has been remarkably consistent since the end of 2012, and it has seemed unwise to start huffing
and puffing on the fundamentals until this little drama is resolved. More on the basics this
weekend....

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