The low test zone for the current short term downtrend is SPX 1900 - 1930 based on several
different support markers. So, with today's rally, the SPX has closed slightly above the zone,
but it is too early to tell whether there is a positive reversal underway or if there is further testing
and even a downside breakaway in store. SPX Daily
The market at -1.5% the 25 day m/a is slightly oversold, and both RSI and MACD are negative.
Most of the time, I look for trend reversals to enter positions and this would be one of them.
The market is still holding the groove it has been in since mid - 2012 when QE 3 by the Fed
was first promised. However, with this program now running ever closer to the zero level, we
have moved quite a ways fundamentally from then and as tempting as it may be to figure the
groove will hold and the SPX is, indeed, near another rally point, conditions are turning less
favorable as the Fed cuts the power of the liquidity tailwind.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!