All of the major markets I follow most closely have been quiet so far this year. The SPX,
the queen bee of interest for the past 2 1/3 years, is a case in point. SPX Daily The market
has been consolidating so far in 2014. The double top in place since year's end triggered
a mild negative response from the tape trader types, but no sell - off of consequence. In fact,
there has been a modest "buy the dip" reaction in recent days. The bull vs. bear commentary
has been furious so far in 2014 compared to the market's lazy action. But, note on the chart
how the market went into consolidation with tops at 1800 just prior to the last Fed FOMC
meeting in Dec. There is a similar pattern now as traders try to calibrate whether the Fed
will take additional tapering action next week or let that issue slide for another meeting or
two. This dreary period has perfectly encapsulated my expectation for very early 2014
as there are enough players to whom QE is of critical enough importance that it is tough to
place bets of consequence ahead the next FOMC statement.
This latest up - move in the SPX from Oct. last year is just holding up and the logic of a
short term double top over a rising trend suggests a resolution of consequence next week
to coincide with, of all things, the FOMC meeting. Bolder folks could come in and upset
the apple cart in the next few days, but so far the consolidation is holding up.
Save for the poor payrolls data for Dec., the economic indicators have been pointing up,
so there should be another taper coming soon unless the Fed wishes to proceed with more
caution for a spell.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!