About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, January 31, 2014

Gold Price

There is some good news and there is some tricky stuff. The good news is the gold price
has come up through trend resistance on try # six dating back to the autumn of 2012.
Moreover, there are positive trend reversals in RSI and MACD as well. Gold Chart
The top panel of the chart shows the relative strength of gold against the SPX. Non - bugz
have been rotating out of gold for a good while now and it has only been recently that the
metal has regained some footing. In fact, since the beginning of this year, traders have
been buyers of gold and Treasuries on stock market weakness. Thus, since the SPX is
getting oversold short term, a rally in stocks could drain the gold and Treasuries market
again in the short run. I would rather see gold move up independently as an inflation hedge
in an expanding global economy rather than be a safety dump for a market correction.
So for now, if you want to buy some gold with a shorter run gain in mind, you'll need to
be both pretty sure and right that the stock market is heading lower.

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