Back on Mar. 10, I projected the market would make an interim top over the latter part
of the month. But, the SPX did not make a short term top until Apr. 11. Even so, the SPX
is right back down around where it was when I wrote the Mar. piece. So, it was not the
worst of calls.
The signature difficulty of the current upleg underway since late Nov. have been the
two positive whipsaws -- one near the end of 2012, and one in late Feb.-- that took the
SPX higher just as it looked as if a correction was about to set in. Those two whipsaws
have told experienced players not to be wise asses about the rally and to respect it.
Now, the SPX did survive a test of the rally uptrend line in place just the other day. But,
the SPX is once again setting up to roll over and because of the prior two wicked whipsaws
one is reluctant to say: "This is it; this is the start of an overdue round of profit taking."
Probably one should wait to see if enough weakness develops to lead the 10 day m/a
below the 25 day m/a before one cautions more vigorously. But, even then, we would
be looking at a market well down from the recent Apr. 11 all time high. No one is going
to clap for you if that happens.
The market has been moving higher really since early Jun. '12, and, it did become strongly
overbought against its 200 day m/a -- rarely a bullish omen. But, as I have feared, it
may be that players feel they have a specific immunity against a material pullback because
of the aggressive QE program by the Fed. As you know, fighting the Fed has not worked
that often in the US particularly when the Fed is being strongly accomodative.
If there is another whipsaw up in the cards, watch carefully to see if the SPX fails to
to take out the recent high of 1593. More ahead from me over the next few days....
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!